Congressional elections and the election of a new House Speaker have put the US’s internal governance and foreign policy into a mess. Power struggles between and within the two parties will make it more and more difficult to achieve consensus on important issues, experts said Saturday local time.
Republicans have seized on the recent Chinese spy balloon saga to cast Biden and the Defense Department as failing to protect national security. They want Biden to step down over his handling of the issue.
China Balloon Shooting Congress to Meet McCarthy Warns GOP
Congressional Republicans are threatening to impeach the top homeland security official as they lash out at President Joe Biden over an alleged Chinese spy balloon shooting into American airspace. They’ve also said they’ll hold hearings near the U.S.-Mexico border to examine the Biden administration’s handling of a migration wave that has drawn thousands to the southwest.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who is expected to lead a slim Republican majority in Congress next year, called on the incoming administration to resign or face impeachment when he takes the gavel. He also threatened to use the “power of the purse” and subpoena to investigate and derail the Biden administration’s immigration policies.
The issue is already testing the GOP’s ability to work together with Democrats in a way that could ultimately be important in resolving a debt ceiling crisis that’s looming over the nation. The Senate voted to approve a $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill earlier this week, and the House is set to vote on it later this month.
In a closed-door briefing with his conservative members Wednesday, McCarthy warned that if the omnibus passes and the debt limit isn’t raised, he would not back any bills from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) that would extend the government’s borrowing authority, according to a source in the room. A hard-right faction within the House is threatening to oust McCarthy from his speakership if he doesn’t do that, and McCarthy’s plans to try to impose tougher budget cuts on the country could also be challenged by the GOP’s conservative flank.
One person in the room said that McCarthy outlined the three main points he brought to Biden last week, including that he won’t raise taxes, he won’t pass a clean debt limit, and that Congress needs to spend less money. But he also suggested that Biden and Senate Democrats must be willing to compromise with the GOP.
The congressional response to the Chinese balloon is also a reminder of how difficult it will be for Republicans to get bipartisan support when they take control of the chamber in January. The GOP has a narrow 222-seat majority and has a history of relying on their hard-right base to push them in the right direction. But if the party relies on that approach, it could be too late for a deal to resolve a debt ceiling crisis.
Biden Wins Over the G.O.P. in the China Mess
Biden has a reputation for delivering results on the campaign trail, but voters have yet to show much enthusiasm for his policies. He has also faced some criticism from abortion rights activists who see him as failing to speak strongly enough on the issue.
In Congress, he’s delivered a large amount of legislation including major health care reform, universal pre-kindergarten and paid family leave, as well as $550 billion dedicated to combating climate change. He has also pushed for tougher gun control laws after every mass shooting that’s occurred on his watch.
While Biden hasn’t been able to win the approval of many Democrats, he has done an admirable job on domestic issues that most people in the United States care about. He has worked to rein in the government’s spending, increase infrastructure investment and boost economic growth.
He has also helped pass a number of major bills, such as the Build Back Better Act that aimed to give Americans access to universal health care and paid family leave, along with the Inflation Reduction Act. While these initiatives have been met with skepticism by some, they are important to the future of the country.
During his first two years in office, Biden has made a lot of progress on these fronts. But with a new House speaker, a polarized Washington, and a slew of hot button issues – including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the downing of a Chinese spy balloon, and the fight against gun violence – the nation faces serious challenges.
With all of these obstacles in his path, Biden will have to rely on his instincts – and the support of newly minted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. – to keep his message positive and strike a conciliatory tone.
A key challenge will be bringing China into the discussion as a strategic competitor and threat to the “global rules-based order,” a major part of Biden’s foreign policy agenda. In particular, Biden will likely point to the recent downing of a Chinese spy balloon as a clear sign that China is a force that must be dealt with.
Biden’s Speech
In what could be a turning point for the White House, President Biden is expected to deliver an address on Tuesday night. It is the first time he will deliver a speech since his last one in September 2016, and it will be a major way point in his effort to win re-election.
He will take credit for a job market that has created more than 6 million new jobs, inflation that has remained steady and a decline in childhood poverty that has helped millions of kids. He will also try to reassert his administration’s policies as a positive force in the country.
The president will also highlight efforts to curb the negative effects of technology on young people. Specifically, he will call for Congress to ban targeted online advertising and enact strong protections for their privacy, safety and mental health.
As for China, Biden is expected to say he will push for a firmer line on Beijing than his predecessor did. That would ratchet up pressure on Beijing, but it won’t change the fact that Washington and Beijing remain on opposite sides of the global economic crisis.
That might make it harder for Biden to score political points with the Republican party, but it also leaves him with options. He can try to pressure the Senate on pro-democracy legislation on a party-line vote, or he can press the House to embrace his get-tough approach to China.
But both of those approaches will be difficult to succeed with a Republican-controlled Senate and an institutionally pro-Trump Congress. In either case, Republican leaders, moderate Democrats and the public are unlikely to give Biden any extra push.
For one thing, the majority of the institutional Republican Party is viscerally pro-Trump or too afraid to cross him to speak out. So even if Biden convinces some moderates in the party to adopt a more nuanced position, it is likely that the party will remain as divided and intractable as ever.
Another reason he will struggle to win the support of Republicans is that his message on democracy is too esoteric for many voters. Polling suggests that most Americans, including most Republicans, aren’t ready to trust a man who has not backed a clear candidate and who hasn’t done much to help the nation.
Biden’s Address
Biden’s State of the Union address may have a huge impact on whether China-US relations get worse or better. The speech is a time for presidents to make their case to the nation, and Biden will have a chance to highlight his successes from handling the COVID-19 pandemic to managing an economy that has seen unemployment drop to its lowest level in over 54 years.
During the address, Biden will likely touch on the recent war in Ukraine and his efforts to boost manufacturing in the United States. But he’ll also be forced to rebut criticisms that his administration hasn’t been tough enough on China, particularly over the spy balloon that’s set off a fresh round of tensions between the two countries.
The White House has long been trying to curb growing tensions between the two countries. It’s also been attempting to bolster the security of U.S. allies in Asia, including South Korea and Japan.
In an effort to counter these challenges, the Biden team has been promoting a series of Asia-focused initiatives, from a U.S.-ASEAN summit to a 2+2 ministerial dialogue with India. These events are intended to show that the United States is a leading power in Asia.
While some of these initiatives are designed to bolster cooperation with key allies, others are intended to undermine Chinese influence in the region. For example, the White House has been pursuing a new initiative to choke off China’s access to critical semiconductor technologies.
But the most contested issue of all is over Taiwan. In his address, Biden is expected to call for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
He is expected to reaffirm the US government’s one-China policy, which is not opposed to Taiwan independence but that does not support a “non-Taiwanese” state. He is also expected to call for a constructive approach that emphasizes communication and reduces misperception while working on ways to improve cross-strait coordination.
In this vein, it’s important to remember that Biden has said four times that the United States will defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China. While some officials have disputed this position, it’s clear that the White House doesn’t plan to walk away from that commitment.
