China has created a Planetary Defense Unit due to the possible threat posed by asteroid 2024 YR4. Having an estimated probability of 2.2% chance of collision by December 2032, this near-Earth object has so far emerged as the highest threat, causing alarm across the world, as well as reactions from other space agencies.
The newly created unit falls under the management of the State Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense (SASTIND), an entity responsible for national security-science and technology. It indicates China’s strongest commitment ever toward planetary defense, an arena that has gained increased prominence over recent years.
SASTIND has also engaged an aggressive recruitment drive, hiring specialists across the field of aerospace engineering, asteroid detecting, and international coordination. The goal here is to develop an efficient early warning system and tracking system to track and analyze threats posed by asteroids. A deflection trial by 2027 has also been envisioned, building upon NASA’s successful Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially observed by the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy back in December 2023. Measuring an estimated 40 to 90 meters (130 to 300 feet) across, it has a very serious threat, one that calculations by the European Space Agency (ESA) also validate, indicating an impact probability of 2.2% by December 22, 2032.
If the asteroid strikes Earth, it would detonate an explosion several times the magnitude of several nuclear explosions. Scientists anticipate possible areas of impact as the Atlantic Ocean, South America, Pacific Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. If it does not lead to mass extinction, the devastation of any populated area could be catastrophic.
NASA and ESA are closely monitoring the asteroid’s trajectory using advanced telescopes, including the James Webb Space Telescope. Both agencies are working on refining impact probability assessments while exploring possible deflection strategies.
Among the proposed strategies for countermeasure, kinetic impact approaches—such as NASA’s DART mission—are one of the notable strategies. China also aims to carry out an identical method, wherein a spacecraft shall collide purposely against the asteroid so that it deviates course, preventing it from causing an impact.
Other alternative plans, including deflection by the use of nuclear explosives, are very controversial. Although some physicists believe that an explosion by a nuclear device could split the asteroid apart into less destructive, smaller pieces, other physicists voice concerns over unforeseen effects, including the creation of several dangerous debris streams.
China’s proactive measure has evoked both support and skepticism from the global scientific community. Some support Beijing, indicating that asteroid defense has to be an international affair. “It is an essential step toward international planetary defense efforts,” says Dr. Michael Thompson, an expert from the European Space Agency. “Every nation that has capabilities in space has an obligation to join this mission.”
However, others say it shouldn’t be done solo. “We need an international coordinated approach, not single national efforts,” NASA planetary defense expert, Dr. Laura Williams, stated. “If China’s deflection mission does not work, it could add complexity to international plans for mitigation.”
Public sentiment also has mixed reactions. While many are happy to welcome China into planetary defense, skeptics question whether there are political motivations other than pure global security. Despite differing opinions, the advent of China’s Planetary Defense Unit ushers an era of international prioritization of threats by asteroids. Due to developing technology that detects asteroids, nations that venture out beyond Earth are developing plans to fend them off, the world has ever-increasing capacity to cope with potential impacts.
