Asteroid Could Ruin Valentine’s Day 2046

Rarely does the universe provide an interesting twist in regards to how close some asteroids get to Earth and how one of them could have the potential to crash onto our planet on Valentine’s Day in 2046. Discovered this February, 2023 DW and 2023 DZ2 offer unique scientific opportunities but also come with a small yet significant threat. Consequently, astronomers worldwide take serious notice of their trajectories to analyze the possibilities for ensuring planetary safety.

First detection of Asteroid 2023 DW was on February 27, 2023. Such an asteroid is distinguished not only by its size but also by the possibility to closely approach Earth on February 14, 2046. It is about 50 meters in diameter-the length of an Olympic swimming pool-and is heading toward Earth at the staggering speed of 25 km/s. The impact probability, moreover, was judged by NASA at about 1 in 770; it was initially assessed as high as 1 in 600. The European Space Agency ESA has likewise refined its calculation, now estimating the chance of impact at 1 in 1,584, a number scientists anticipate further tracking will continue to lessen.

While 2023 DW is the only asteroid in a non-zero rating on NASA’s Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning it provides an extremely low but not negligible chance, scientists are optimistic. For one, continued monitoring is warranted because even tiny adjustments in the projected orbit of 2023 DW will rule out its chance of colliding with Earth altogether.

Although a bit larger, Asteroid 2023 DZ2 is about 40-90 meters in diameter and has no possibility of collision, states NASA. It is expected to sail safely by Earth on March 25, 2023, at an estimated distance of approximately 100,000 miles, which is less than half the distance to the Moon. This is pretty close; close approaches with large asteroids occur about once a decade, and this will be a privileged opportunity for astronomers to learn more from it. The asteroid is supposed to be seen under good viewing conditions, visible through telescopes and even with a pair of binoculars.

For this reason, astrophysicists are ready to take advantage of such an opportunity to observe 2023 DZ2’s composition closely, and the asteroid will be traveling at a speed of roughly 28,000 kph (17,500 mph). Not even novice astronomers will have to miss the flying by; webcasts will feature the Virtual Telescope Project. 2023 DZ2 will not appear until 2026 but will safely pass the time, enabling astronomers to carry on making more observations of its path.

Equally important, NASA and the ESA, along with other global agencies, are in constant pursuit of tracking both 2023 DW and 2023 DZ2 among a host of thousands of near-Earth objects through tracking systems like the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System at ATLAS. This provides full-sky night views every 24 hours, in turn providing technology to detect potentially hazardous asteroids with sufficient warning time to allow for any possible intervention. In 2022, the DART mission successfully altered the orbit of a harmless asteroid. The mission demonstrated that Earth is ever more capable of deflecting hazardous space objects onto harmless paths. This constitutes an important assurance for future defense planning in case a threat with a risk profile like that of asteroid 2023 DW increases.